Update (Oct. 24, 2018): We first wrote this blog in the middle of the summer of 2018.
At the time, a July heatwave had just been linked to more than 90 deaths in Quebec. Less than a month later, British Columbia announced that 2018 was officially the province’s worst-ever summer for forest fire damage.
The dramatic events at home matched a global pattern, and we wanted to write a piece that gave an overview of the climate “state of play.”
Then, on Oct. 8, 2018, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a report that added a disturbing new dimension to this reality. The report concluded that humans have only 12 years to “limit climate catastrophe.”
The report is a forceful call for governments to take swift climate action. For us at Ecojustice, it is a powerful reminder of why we go to court and use the power of the law to combat climate change.
In light of the IPCC’s report, we are revisiting this blog and reflecting on the state of play through the lens of the IPCC’s urgent warning. We invite you to join us in re-reading this blog and sharing it with your friends and family:
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Climate change is real, it is happening now, and it is caused by human activity — mostly through the burning of fossil fuels. This conclusion is shared by 97% of climate scientists and should be doubted by no reasonable person.
Increasingly, we are seeing the deadly impacts of climate change with our own eyes.
In recent weeks, headlines about extreme heatwaves and wildfires have gripped our attention. Both California and Greece have been hit with a drying and warming trend making longer, more intense fire seasons despite being oceans apart (the wildfire that raged through the coastal area east of Athens, Greece has left 91 people dead and 25 missing).
Just last week Japan experienced record-breaking heat that sent 22,647 people to the hospital. While the UK — a region normally associated with rain — has been suffering from forest fires, drought and anticipated food shortages and Sweden continues to feel the impacts of its drought and wildfires — including in regions north of the Arctic Circle. As you can see, these heatwaves and wildfires aren’t just impacting one area, they’re happening around the world.
All of these weather events can be tied back to climate change. Scientists have already surmised that climate change made northern Europe’s heatwave twice as likely.
And while the extreme weather rocking countries across the globe is concerning, it’s not entirely shocking.
Scientists have long predicted that the world would witness these changes in the frequency, intensity, duration and timing of extreme weather and climate events. And they have warned that this year’s disasters are just a sign of what is to come.
In Canada we see a clear trend of rising temperatures. In 2016, the average temperature across Canada was 2.1 degrees Celsius hotter than the norm from 1948-1990, and over 3 degrees hotter in the north. This warming trend is projected to continue under all scenarios of future climate change. By 2100, the number of days above 30 degrees Celsius in Canadian cities is expected to double and a one-in-20-year hottest day may become a one-in-two-year event.
Graph by Environment and Climate Change Canada
In the wake of the deadly heat wave that engulfed eastern Canada in early July, and the other alarming headlines from around globe that have captured our attention, we think it is timely to step back and reflect on the state of play of Canada’s plans to combat climate change.
Canada’s 2030 commitment: Another broken promise looms
While Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has claimed to international audiences that “Canada is back” when it comes to global leadership on climate action, closer to home we can see he is merely keeping to our country’s long history of making big promises and then failing to live up to them — this seems especially true given this week’s announcement that the federal government has decided to hand out favors to big industry by announcing plans to water down its carbon pricing plan for large polluters.
According to a joint audit conducted by federal Environment Commissioner Julie Gelfand and auditor generals in nine provinces, Canada is not on track to meet its climate goals for 2020 and 2030. They estimate that Canada will overshoot its emissions target for 2020 by a whopping 20 per cent. Meeting our 2030 target will require “substantial effort and actions beyond those currently planned or in place,” and that assumes no back-sliding which we are already beginning to see.
Are we surprised? Not exactly. Canada set its first GHG reduction target in 1992. We aimed to reduce annual emissions to 613 megatonnes by 2000. We went over the mark by 20 per cent. Next, in the Kyoto Protocol, we committed to a target of 576 megatonnes by 2012. We missed that target by 25 per cent, pulling out of the agreement at the last minute to avoid penalties. In two years we will miss our target for 2020 (612 megatonnes) by a wide margin.
Here is Canada’s track record: We set targets and then fail to meet them. Since the 1990s the science of climate change and its devastating impacts has strengthened but Canada has done little to halt the damage. In fact, the numbers show that our federal government has overseen a substantial increase of GHG pollution in the last three decades.
Wondering why? Well, according to Gelfand’s audit we’re great at setting targets, okay at making plans, and weak on actual implementation through laws and regulations that reduce GHG pollution.
But beyond the brass tacks our federal government just suffers from a lack of vision and political will. The next few decades will see advanced industrial countries phase out fossil fuels from their economies. This is both necessary, to avoid the most dangerous impacts of climate change, and pragmatic, to keep pace with global economic trends toward renewable energy and electrification of transport.
Meanwhile our federal government is prepared to spend over $15 billion for a tar sands expansion pipeline and continues to subsidize fossil fuel production with about $3.3 billion of taxpayers’ dollars a year. Imagine the clean economy infrastructure that could be built with $15 billion! And with $3.3 billion a year our federal government could pay for the education of 260,000 students or put $94 dollars into the pocket of every Canadian.
The federal government’s direct and indirect supports to an ever-growing fossil fuel sector tell you more about its seriousness on climate change than lofty rhetoric or a grand plan ever could.
The 411 on who’s tackling climate change (and who’s not) at the provincial level
Nearly a year and a half ago, the federal government, eight provinces and all three territories agreed to hold polluters accountable by putting a price on greenhouse gas emissions as part of the national climate change plan, Pan Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change.
The framework is meant to provide a national plan to meet Canada’s 2030 emissions target, especially by requiring provinces to put their own price on pollution by the start of next year — otherwise polluters will face a federally-imposed one.
Fast forward to today, and things aren’t so harmonious. Saskatchewan has outright refused to impose its own pollution tax (and vowed to fight any federally-imposed carbon price), while the upcoming Alberta election means that their seat at the table is on uncertain ground. And then there’s Ontario.
As many of you have likely heard, the country’s most populous province hobbled its plan to reduce GHGs in early July when Doug Ford scrapped Ontario’s joint cap and trade program. Then Ontario followed up by repealing the Climate Change and Mitigation and Low-carbon Economy Act, 2016 and doing away with the province’s GHG reduction targets. All this without proposing an alternative plan for reducing GHG pollution.
And Ottawa is not taking too kindly to Ontario’s new position.
Federal Environment and Climate Change Minister Catherine McKenna has said that Ford’s decision to end the program without an alternative plan is a clear sign that it is not taking climate action and holding those that pollute our atmosphere to account.
As a result, Canada hit the brakes on more than $400 million in funding to Ontario under the Low Carbon Economy Leadership Fund — a program designed to help provinces implement their plans to reduce GHGs and support clean energy growth initiatives, like renovating buildings and retrofitting houses. And Ontario will soon face the federally-enforced plan. In response Ontario is joining Saskatchewan’s shaky legal challenge to the federal scheme.
British Columbia stands out as a potential beacon of hope. Though the government scrapped its 2020 target in the ironically named Climate Accountability Act, it has committed to getting B.C. back on track with new reduction targets for 2030 and 2040 and increasing its carbon tax. However, all eyes will be on a long-awaited climate plan due in the fall, which is hoped will set out the policies needed to make up for a lost decade under the previous government. It will also need to show how it can square a renewed push for liquid natural gas developments with its climate commitments, as this industry’s massive GHG emissions could swamp reductions made elsewhere.
Let’s be real. Even if we see carbon pricing and other policy measures take hold across the country, the progress will be undercut if we continue expanding our fossil fuel industries. More GHG pollution from oil and gas means a virtually impossible burden on the rest of the economy to reduce emissions.
Reality check
Taking stock we see that Canada is making little to no progress in reducing our GHG pollution. All else being equal, this can only mean one thing — more climate change to come. More extreme heat, flooding, wildfires, sea level rise, drought, and, eventually, international migration.
Instead of aggressive action we see our governments investing more of our dollars in yesterday’s fossil fuel economy. This undermines what positive work that is happening and exposes us to greater losses down the road when the global economy leaves us behind.
If our governments are not up to the challenge it falls to citizens to push for change. Lawsuits to protect our environment and secure everyone’s right to a safe climate are one part of that push.
That’s why the Ecojustice team remains committed to continuing to stand strong in the face of projects like the Trans Mountain pipeline that take us in the wrong direction on climate change and put the health of our communities and the environment in jeopardy. And when the Senate sits again in the fall, we’ll be back on the Hill advocating for stronger environmental legislation.
The road ahead is bound to be long and bumpy, but someone has to travel it. We’re up to the challenge. We hope we can count on you to stand with us.
An excellent and very clear account of climate change.
Thank you. Keep up the good work.
Education, education, education!! Thank you for standing at the forefront. Hope the education starts at the elementary school so we
can have hope for a better future. It is sad that we can’t rely on our
federal government!!!
You are telling the truth. I support you and thank you for speaking for us. So well.
https://theconversation.com/no-youre-not-entitled-to-your-opinion-9978
Hard to believe that the very people we pay to represent us in government are those who ignore 1. what we need 2. what we voted for and 3. what science has been warning us about for a long time. What part of “NO’ do they not understand? Power is a scary thing.
Though realistic and depressing this article is an important alert to keep up pressure on government and education of people and leaders about what is needed to make some impression of a positive kind on the climate problems we all face.
I am so tired of inaction by our elected representatives, and actions that make developing clean energy systems difficult due to government (that spells you and me) subsidizing fossil fuels.
However, if we want to stop talking, reading and writing about this and get on with actions that count, each one of us MUST push back in every way possible, telling our Governments that we want subsidies for clean tech, not fossil fuels. We have become global climate pariahs in our collective complacency, even though I’m sure some of us write, call and meet our MLA’s and MP’s, sign petitions, attend protection rallies and help fund independent reporting. Way more of us have to step up for clean jobs and a liveable planet.
If our current federal government lacks, as you say, vision & political will, and as our emissions continue to climb, and even your “beacon of hope,” BC is talking about reduction targets decades down the line by which time cumulative emissions will make those targets hopelessly inadequate, I just don’t see how organizations doing more of what they have been doing up till now is going to make the kind of difference that needs to be made. I appreciate and value all you have done till now, but clearly something not only more but radically different must be called for.
You have to ask Why are the big emitters not meeting sufficiently aggressive targets? It is an international issue, targets are inadequate, there is insufficient pressure on laggard nations – we need to apply international sanctions and meet biannually to review and set new targets. But—the major impediment is neo-liberalism in the developed world.
Keep up the good work
Under the present first-past-the-post electoral system in this country, political parties that strive to gain power or remain in power will renege on their promises and commitments to reduce greenhouse gases. We need to implement proportional representation so that parties can work together to do the courageous things to save the planet.
I appreciate your investigations and the work you are doing. More people need to know what you have discovered. More people need to react. More people need to be galvanized into action. Once fully aware of a misplaced trust in governments and corporations, I know that people are capable of making incredibly rapid steps toward progress. We are in a war against inertia.
The world is off balance, in a state of emergency, and most of us feel impotent to affect change. Please give more of us more ammunition so that everyone in their own small corner can fight in their own small way.
Thank you for such a well-researched, clearly written and hard-hitting article. It is powerful and necessary, and I hope it will circulated widely.
Thank you for this excellent summary of Canada’s lack of progress on climate change. It should be required reading for every Canadian!
i held a sign at the 2013 Climate Protest which read “Harper’s Creed: Free Market Unimpeded, Mother Earth Unheeded.” i’m now beginning to believe that Harper voiced a lot more truth, than we gave him credit for. The global situation remains exactly that — the Market Economy reigns supreme at any cost — and this technological monstrosity, driven by power and greed, is the exact diametric opposite of the ways of Mother Earth. This is not simply a sentimental idea, but a philosophical, psychological and sociological truth. Even though there appears to be no logical reason why a Green Market Economy can’t also succeed, “technological and economic progress” as a guiding 1st principle, unavoidably needs to consume and extinguish the living Earth, because “the Market” is like a hungry wolf seeing lambs. Only by recognizing this truth at a fundamental consciousness level, can we effectively work towards having a civilization living in harmony with the planet — and it can also be a prosperous one for all concerned.
The residents of BC have already “voted” though a consensus of consciousness, turning towards this greater truth, which their governmental bodies recognized and respected by ending Grizzly Bear hunting and banning Cetacean captivity. They’re now saying “no more” to the pipeline from this stance, with the support and guidance of the Natives, who know well, this truth.
If BC’s fight is recognized and honoured, not simply as a Climate or pollution issue, but as an emergence of a greater collective consciousness — as a new primary guiding principle of a political entity — a major milestone for the planet could be at hand. Whether stopping the pipeline is ultimately achieved or not, all concerned citizens would then need to “map to” the hearts and minds of the people of BC in this fight, and not let the media distort the essence of BC’s consensus of consciousness — growing the rest of Canada’s, in like.
Legal efforts should be directed at removing barriers and limited interests status. For example, the “stakeholder” principle for management of wild lands and species, should be broadened to enable all citizens of the respective province to have an equal say, so that the consensus of consciousness can effectively play out, and the new primary principle of respect for Mother Earth begin to flourish.
Thank you for this revealing look at Canada! Please contact me by email – or by phone 705 6745466 where I am staying in Sudbury. I just want to help. Thanks.
What is Canada doing? Sweet fuck all
https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/canada/
This should be resolve right away.
Climate change is not a small thing to ignore.
Everything is affected.
Loss Of Olfactory Systems In Marine Fishes Is Due To Climate Change
https://www.evolving-science.com/environment/climate-change-00754
Thank you for this clear summary of the last 30 years or so of Canadian climate change policy and (lack of) action. While depressing to read, it is crucial to have an article like this to refer to when speaking with those who are uninformed on the matter. The many dates and plans are very difficult to keep straight!